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Resigned dan games statistics
http://prod.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=11983		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Knotwilg [ Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:12 am ]
Post subject:  Resigned dan games statistics
Continuing on a side discussion that sprung from the interesting "snowballing" topic and the relative importance of the opening, here are my first findings on the question "how big is the impact of not resigning" on a winning statistic.

I took a random set of 10 games (small sample yet) played in the 1k-2d range to see at what stage the game was resigned and how big the advantage was. I took this range so that the potential I see in the game would match the skills of the player.

In 8 games the advantage was well above 25 points and in some cases above 50, with a big group being captured. Almost all of these were resigned after a decisive tactical outcome. No games dragged on to wait for an opportunity to turn the tables.

In 1 game however, the player resigned because the opponent succeeded an invasion in his moyo. This gave the resigning player considerable thickness, facing some kind of Chinese distribution at the other end of the board. Definitely not a losing position, merely disappointment of not being able to "keep what's mine".

In the other game, the player resigned while being clearly ahead in points, again due to disappointment of losing a territory that shouldn't be.

(to be continued)



Let's say that such games have a probability somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 to be still won.
So based on this admittedly very small sample, my current estimate for the impact of not resigning on your winning percentage is 5%-10% (2/10*(1/4|1/2)) times the ratio of resigned games.
Author:  Knotwilg [ Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Resigned dan games statistics
A sample of 10 KGS 1d players, counting 40 games per player, gives a resign average of 53% with outliers 77% and 32%
I did not count how often these players themselves resigned, as I anyhow want to aggregate across the playing field.
The two lowest percentages were clearly affected by the time settings these players prefer with a lot of losses on time (at either side).

This would currently set the upper bound for "impact of not resigning on winning percentage" at 5,3%. That is, if 1 player takes such decision. If all players stop resigning, we'll likely go back to the current stats. But the same argument holds for studying the opening. Dave is right of course that if we all study the opening intensively, the quality of the games will improve, whereas if we all stop resigning, it will deteriorate by an estimated 45% (resigned games that are not reversible).
Author:  Bill Spight [ Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Resigned dan games statistics
Knotwilg wrote:
In 1 game however, the player resigned because the opponent succeeded an invasion in his moyo. This gave the resigning player considerable thickness, facing some kind of Chinese distribution at the other end of the board. Definitely not a losing position, merely disappointment of not being able to "keep what's mine".

In the other game, the player resigned while being clearly ahead in points, again due to disappointment of losing a territory that shouldn't be.


The wuss is strong in them.

:shock: :mrgreen: :grumpy:
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